Compounding Variance

Each step at 95% reliability compounds multiplicatively

Cumulative Reliability Step 1 95% × 0.95 Step 2 90% × 0.95 Step 3 86% × 0.95 Step 4 81% × 0.95 Step 5 77% × 0.95
60%
at 10 steps
36%
at 20 steps
13%
at 40 steps

The more capable the agent, the less reliable it becomes